Authors: Ali Khan Masood, Zia, A., M., Merrill, S.C., Shrum, T., CJ Koliba., Soares, R., Quainoo, R., & Myers, M.
Title: Quantifying and Mapping Biases in Flood Risk Perceptions: Findings from a US National Survey.
Abstract: Flood risk perception informs adaptive behavior, impacts disaster response strategies, and influences community resilience. Disparities between subjective and objective perceptions highlight areas for targeted interventions to improve preparedness and reduce vulnerability. Accurate perception is pivotal for effective risk communication and policymaking, crucial for minimizing flood-related impacts. This paper delves into the contrasting perspectives of subjective and objective flood risks within the United States, aiming to illuminate the nuances and biases inherent in flood risk perception. Objective flood risk is quantified using the comprehensive maps such as FEMA’s National Flood Hazard Layer. Conversely, subjective flood risk is derived from individual perceptions derived from a nationwide survey which captured data from approximately 1000 households.
We sought to understand differences between objective and subjective risk along with other factors that could explain these differences such as income, education level, proximity to water bodies, demographics, previous flooding experience, and levels of trust and worry.
Overall, this paper seeks to bridge significant knowledge gaps, particularly in understanding the drivers of bias in subjective versus objective flood risk perceptions. Through this comprehensive analysis, it contributes valuable insights into the nuances of misalignment between subjective and objective risk and its spatial distribution patterns across the USA, offering crucial implications for policymakers and for developing crisis and risk communication strategy.